MICHAEL O. ALLEN

All Posts By

michael o. allen

Springfield, Illinois?

By HomepageNo Comments

The Obama campaign yesterday confirmed Lynn Sweet’s report that the Illinois senator has reserved the grounds of the old state capital for a major event on Saturday and will appear with his choice for vice president.

Obama’s from Illinois, of course, but he’s already made a big announcement there. Springield strikes me as an odd place to hold a rally with Biden or Kaine unless the announcement comes very soon and the pair hold a rally in Delaware or Virginia somewhere before Saturday. Springfield might not be an unusual place to hold a rally with Sebelius or Bayh, because both of them live within pretty easy driving distance of Springfield.

Maybe he’s not planning to hold a rally in the prospective veep’s home state at all. I don’t see the sense in that unless the pick is someone, like Chet Edwards or Chuck Hagel, from a reliably red state.

Could Obama be considering a vice-presidential candidate who hails from the Land of Lincoln???

As far as I can tell, there’s only one person under serious consideration who fits that bill: Hillary Clinton.

Cross-posted from Facebook.

Touching pain

By HomepageNo Comments

Bob Dylan – Not Dark Yet

Not Dark Yet by Bob Dylan

Shadows are fallin’
and I’ve been here all day
It’s too hot to sleep
and time is runnin’ away

Feel like my soul has
turned into steel
I’ve still got the scars
that the sun didn’t heal

There’s not even room
enough to be anywhere
It’s not dark yet
but it’s gettin’ there.

Well, my sense of humanity
has gone down the drain
Behind every beautiful thing
there’s been some kind of pain

She wrote me a letter
and she wrote it so kind
She put down in writin’
what was in her mind

I just don’t see why
I should even care
It’s not dark yet
but it’s gettin’ there.

Well, I’ve been to London
and I been to gay Paris
I’ve followed the river
and I got to the sea

I’ve been down on the bottom
of the world full of lies
I ain’t lookin’ for nothin’
in anyone’s eyes

Sometimes my burden
is more than I can bear
It’s not dark yet
but it’s gettin’ there.

I was born here and I’ll die here
against my will
I know it looks like I’m movin’
but I’m standin’ still

Every nerve in my body
is so naked and numb
I can’t even remember what it was
I came here to get away from

Don’t even hear
the murmur of a prayer
It’s not dark yet
but it’s gettin’ there.

An exchange with Bryan Sells on Obama’s VP choice

By HomepageNo Comments

michael o. allen to Bryan Sells: Today @ 9:18am

Good morning.

I think you’re wrong but would you post your veepstakes piece?

And may I put a link to the New York Times piece in that post?

Bryan Sells‘s reply Today @ 9:24am

OK. You can certainly add the NYT link.

Bryan Sells‘s follow-up to his reply Today @ 9:26am

And what part is wrong? who’s your guess?

michael o. allen to Bryan Today @ 11:17am

I agree with you that all the names that have been floated could be feints. I don’t think Gore is in the mix. Neither is Hillary. I have a hard time seeing Hagel (such a pick would confirm what many suspect that Obama is a moderate in a sheep clothing; the Democratic base would rebel).

Webb is still a possibility (he’s my choice), despite taking himself out of the race.

Kaine, too.

Bayh is certainly safe.

But, if you’re correct that the names being floated are to throw us of, then I would not rule out a safe dark horse like Chet Edwards

Bryan Sells replied Today @ 11:27am

I thought long and hard before leaving Edwards off my list of four surprise picks. His brand isn’t strong enough to make people say “wow!” They’d just say “who?”

michael o. allen’s very long rejoinder Today @ 11:35am

which could be a selling point.

The Times story is wrongly assumes that the presidential candidates want publicity from their vp choices. why would they want publicity?

The most obvious tack is to do no harm. Biden, for instance, even without his awkward jab about Obama being “clean”, would be a harmful pick.

Bayh and Kaine not so much.

Edwards, Chet not John, unless he too has busloads of illegitimate children that he fathered with illegal immigrant prostitutes, would fit the bill of boring but safe vp pick (he even looks like a vp).

And he might even help you.

Today @ 11:47am, Bryan Sells wanted to know:

Fair point. But if Obama’s not seeking publicity, then why’d his campaign leak the “short list” story last night? Why has his campaign been hyping the veepstakes for weeks?

michael o. allen then meanders Today @ 12:04pm

because, as you pointed out in your first post today (which scared me, by the way), Obama is not always the sure-footed candidate that some of us who drank the kool-aid a long time ago (I count myself as one of these) would like to think he is.

I think full-throated economic populism, with jobs and rebuilding America’s infrastructure as the linchpin, is the message that’ll give him the office he seeks. And that’s exactly the message that Obama will not deliver. Obama seems to want to hew close to the middle of the road, thinking the Republican brand is so degraded that even a black man saying not much of anything could coast into the presidency.

I don’t believe that.

I think Americans are taking a hard look at McCain and would give him the presidency in a bat of an eye if he does not seem too crazy. If all that is wrong with McCain is that he’s too old, too incompetent, and sometimes gets lost in his own words, America would take a pass on Obama’s apparent brilliance and stick with McCain.

Obama needs to give people a reason to vote for him. Charisma is not going to do it. Being miles and miles more intelligent than the other guy is not going to do it. You’ve got bring more to the table.

That hero, McCain

By HomepageNo Comments

The New York Times published a story on Sunday that had me scratching my head.

Timesman David D. Kirkpatrick’s piece, Response to 9/11 Offers Outline of McCain Doctrine, is not quite like the usual admiring pieces that we’ve come to expect from the mainstream media about McCain, explaining away obvious and prodigious faults while pumping up questionable actions as valorous. This piece contained actual criticisms of McCain, including from a retired general who was a former supporter of the Arizona senator before before breaking with him over the Iraq war.

Kirkpatrick, nevertheless, coated McCain in a heroic sheen. John McCain got to his Senate office in Washington, D.C. late on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, moments after terrorists flew the first plane into the World Trade Center.

McCain, that old warrior (at least, as the story would have you believe) immediately recognized this for what it was:

“This is war,” he was quoted as murmuring to aides, as the sound of scrambling fighter planes rattled windows and sent panic through the room.

I’m sure Mccain was not rattled. He is a war hero, remember?

“Within hours, Mr. McCain, the Vietnam War hero and famed straight talker of the 2000 Republican primary, had taken on a new role: the leading advocate of taking the American retaliation against Al Qaeda far beyond Afghanistan. In a marathon of television and radio appearances, Mr. McCain recited a short list of other countries said to support terrorism, invariably including Iraq, Iran and Syria.

“There is a system out there or network, and that network is going to have to be attacked,” Mr. McCain said the next morning on ABC News. “It isn’t just Afghanistan,” he added, on MSNBC. “I don’t think if you got bin Laden tomorrow that the threat has disappeared,” he said on CBS, pointing toward other countries in the Middle East.

Within a month he made clear his priority. “Very obviously Iraq is the first country,” he declared on CNN. By Jan. 2, Mr. McCain was on the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt in the Arabian Sea, yelling to a crowd of sailors and airmen: “Next up, Baghdad!”

Kirkpatrick wrote this entire passage almost approvingly. He does not point out that none of the alleged 9/11 terrorists were Iranian, Iraqi, or Syrian, or that 14 or 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens, and that the financing for this “Attack on America” was wholly from the Saudi coffers.

That McCain was wrong in his analysis of every aspect of the situation, that he was wrong on the prescription to remedy the situation, was also not part of the story. It was just another mainstream media piece that took pains to mention that McCain was “Vietnam War hero.”

“Now, as Mr. McCain prepares to accept the Republican presidential nomination, his response to the attacks of Sept. 11 opens a window onto how he might approach the gravest responsibilities of a potential commander in chief. Like many, he immediately recalibrated his assessment of the unseen risks to America’s security. But he also began to suggest that he saw a new “opportunity” to deter other potential foes by punishing not only Al Qaeda but also Iraq.

“Just as Sept. 11 revolutionized our resolve to defeat our enemies, so has it brought into focus the opportunities we now have to secure and expand our freedom,” Mr. McCain told a NATO conference in Munich in early 2002, urging the Europeans to join what he portrayed as an all but certain assault on Saddam Hussein. “A better world is already emerging from the rubble.”

To his admirers, Mr. McCain’s tough response to Sept. 11 is at the heart of his appeal. They argue that he displayed the same decisiveness again last week in his swift calls to penalize Russia for its incursion into Georgia, in part by sending peacekeepers to police its border.

His critics charge that the emotion of Sept. 11 overwhelmed his former cool-eyed caution about deploying American troops without a clear national interest and a well-defined exit, turning him into a tool of the Bush administration in its push for a war to transform the region.

“He has the personality of a fighter pilot: when somebody stings you, you want to strike out,” said retired Gen. John H. Johns, a former friend and supporter of Mr. McCain who turned against him over the Iraq war. “Just like the American people, his reaction was: show me somebody to hit.”

I mean this is a nightmare. Would America really let this happen? Elect McCain, a man even more unsuitable than George W. Bush, to the presidency?

The Obama campaign seized on a motif early in the campaign, saying that a vote for John McCain would be a vote for a third term for George W. Bush.

Let me offer another scenario: Karl Rove’s brass knuckle attack on McCain–you know, the one about him fathering a child with a black prostitute–did not work (after which Rove would have rolled out the crazed Manchurian candidate attack–they had already questioned Mccain’s patriotism, although not quite loudly yet; I would have loved to see what Karl Rove would have done to McCain’s hero status up close, in a hard-fought contest that the 2000 election would have been) and McCain emerged with the nomination and occupied the White House the last seven plus years.

What this Times story told me is that–and hard as this may be to imagine–America with McCain as president would have made all of the same mistakes that the administration of George W. Bush made in the aftermath of Sept. 11.

Our foreign policy would have been just as bellicose, if not more so. A president McCain would still have countenanced torture, shredded the Constitution, violated civil liberties, would have run just as inept a federal bureaucracy, betrayed the people of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, and been just as befuddled a steward of the economy.

The polls say McCain is within a striking distance of winning the presidency, an event that I find alarming.

Yet another veepstakes post

By HomepageNo Comments

The Democratic world may soon wake up with a text or email from the Obama campaign announcing his choice for VP. Drudge, the NYT, and other media outlets have been abuzz this evening with the story of Obama’s “short list” and impending announcement.

The names being floated are Bayh, Biden, Kaine, and Sebelius. Kaine would be my pick, but I think they’re all head fakes. The stories out tonight have the distinct feel of a carefully scripted campaign leak. So why leak at all?

The answer? To make the actual announcement more surprising and newsworthy.

So who, then, would generate that kind of buzz as a surprise pick? There are a lot of people whose pick would be surprising, but very few whose selection would really grab the headlines:

Clinton
Gore
Webb
Hagel

My gut tells me that Webb and Hagel are the least likely of the four.

What’s your guess?

Olympic baseball

By HomepageNo Comments

The Olympic baseball tournament is getting interesting.

The United States Olympic baseball team started very slowly in the tournament, losing to South Korea before beating the Netherlands, then losing in extra-innings to Cuba, only to come back and beat Canada and China. In the China game on Monday things got pretty rough. Matt LaPorta got hit in the head after he ran over China’s catcher and knocked him out of the game. Nate Schierholtz avenged LaPorta with this collision at the plate.

The U.S. needs to beat Taiwan and Japan, which is undefeated, to get into the medal rounds.

The baseball tournament–which is being discontinued in Olympic competition (apparently darts and ballroom dancing are under consideration as replacement sports), along with softball, in 2012–has been spectacular, but the only place to follow it is online.

Of course TV has that beach volleyball thing covered.

Saddleback

By HomepageNo Comments

Like any serious political junkie, I watched the entire Saddleback forum on Saturday night.  My assessment, in a nutshell:  Obama sounded like Dukakis; McCain sounded like Reagan.  If I were a McCainiac, I’d be giddy with excitement.

There has been a rope-a-dope meme bouncing around the internet over the last few weeks.  Democratic-leaning pundits have guessed that the Obama campaign’s weak performance over the last few weeks might have been an attempt to get McCain to shoot his negative-ad wad early.  Then the Obama campaign would come out strong after the convention.

I think that Obama’s awful performance on Saturday casts serious doubt on that theory. Obama was obviously unprepared or prepared badly.  More likely the latter.  He gave long, professorial responses (just like Dukakis) where he should have and could have delivered short, coherent, on-message response.

This makes me think that the weakness we’ve seen in the last few weeks as Obama has dropped like a rock in the polls is no rope-a-dope maneuver but actually the result of a lousy campaign.

October surprise *

By HomepageNo Comments

Trey Ellis in HuffPo thinks we should be afraid, very afraid of what Republicans might have up their sleeves for October:

We taxpayers already have shelled out $100 billion on contractors in Iraq since 2003. They have 180,000 employees in country now building what they had assumed would be permanent bases for a permanent occupation of an oil-rich land.

Does anyone really believe that Cheney/Halliburton/Blackwater will relinquish the keys to the American treasury without the nastiest of fights?

For six years Cheney has unleashed a gusher of obscene profiteering with little or no oversight of his petro/reconstruction/military contracting cohorts. You don’t have to be a conspiracy-addicted fan of Jack Bauer’s to understand that they won’t just quietly retire to their yachts in the Gulf of Mexico after regime change and their operations in Iraq are forcibly ended. They understand that not only will they be out of business, but that they could also go to jail — if Democrats hold hearings into war profiteering, just as Truman did as a Senator in 1943.

Remember, when Halliburton et al. first entered Iraq, Republicans had a virtual one-party lock on governance. Democrats acted like frightened little forest animals. The contractors didn’t have to cover their tracks because the vice president of the United States, the de facto ruler of the free world, was their capo.

Me? I sometimes subscribe to the pessimism that the writer voices here. Other times, I am euphoric over Sen. Barack Obama’s chances of winning the presidency. Practically everyone I know supports Obama. My town, which not long ago was a Republican town, is now festooned with “Obama for President” lawn signs.

Yet, this is America we’re talking about. It is at the root of Bill Clinton’s restlessness. Republicans are counting on that thing that Bill feels inately. Bill knows. He has always known this country better than anyone. That’s why he was able to tap what was darkest in the heart of America into two terms in the presidency. Anymore than he wants his wife to win the presidency, he knows that Hillary, warts-and-all, would be easier for Americans to swallow than the pristine Mr. Obama.

Damn Bill!