TNR’s John Judis makes an important point in a blog post today:

I mention the Bradley effect because I think, too, that McCain and Sarah Palin’s attack against Obama for advocating “spreading the wealth” and for “socialism” and for pronouncing the civil rights revolution a “tragedy” because it didn’t deal with the distribution of wealth is aimed ultimately at white working class undecided voters who would construe “spreading the wealth” as giving their money to blacks. It’s the latest version of Reagan’s “welfare queen” argument from 1980. It if it works, it won’t be because most white Americans actually oppose a progressive income tax, but because they fear that Obama will inordinately favor blacks over them.

TNR’s Noam Scheiber agrees and worries that this racial code is reinforced by media stories about the legions of black voters waiting in line for hours to cast their ballots for Obama.

There doesn’t appear to be much hard evidence to support Judis’ theory except perhaps for some very slight tightening in a few of the national tracking polls (most notably Gallup, Rasmussen, and Zogby) over the last few days. This slight tightening could just be statistical noise, and it doesn’t really say anything about the electoral college.

Still, I’m worried. Why? Because I just spoke to a friend of mine in Florida yesterday. It’s probably fair to describe her as a white Southern moderate. Think Gretchen Wilson’s “Redneck Woman.” She was born and raised in the Deep South and is as country as all get-out. But she’s pro-choice and not a Christian Conservative at all.

I hadn’t spoken to her in a few months, and I asked her what she thought about Palin. Much to my relief, my friend didn’t like Palin at all. She thinks Palin’s unqualified for the job. She told me that she likes McCain but can’t vote for Palin.

I asked her about Obama. She was lukewarm at best. I asked her why. To paraphrase, she said that she doesn’t like the idea of paying taxes so that someone else can sit on their ass and collect a government check. nevermind that my friend doesn’t make enough to have her taxes raised under Obama’s plan. Nevermind that Obama recently added a work requirement to his middle class tax cuts.

Needless to say, it was apparent to me that the McCain camp’s “spreading the wealth” argument resonated with her. Not only that, but it also seemed to me that she was making a connection between “spreading the wealth” and welfare queens. Although she never used the words “welfare” or “queen,” I have no doubt that McCain’s argument had, perhaps on a subconscious level, activated the negative stereotype for black people in her mind.

As anyone who has read Drew Westen’s book, The Political Brain, will recognize, this kind of politics has a long a nearly unblemished record of success. Westen would also say that the way to fight back against racial code words that operate on a subconscious level is to make them conscious and to appeal to our better angels. The Obama camp hasn’t done that yet, and I haven’t seen any indication that he plans to do so.

There may not be enough time for Senator McCain to close the gap in the polls with this kind of subtlety. We’ll see.

Cross-posted from Facebook