Initial thoughts on Biden . . .

First, I’d like to point out that Biden was at the top of my VP short list back in June. Yes, that’s because the list was in alphabetical order, but shouldn’t I get at least half credit for making the right pick?

On a more serious note, I’m feeling mixed emotions about the pick this morning. I like Biden a lot. Those of you who know me well may remember that he was very high on my list of presidential choices last year before he dropped out of the race. He’s a legislative leader, a great speaker, and a brilliant and pragmatic thinker. He also has an extremely compelling life story. I should be very happy this morning.

But I’m not. Three different thoughts leave me a little disappointed. First, I don’t think that Obama picked him for the right reasons. Kerry, Gore and Bill Clinton had all advised Obama to pick someone he trusts completely. I don’t think that’s Joe Biden even though Obama and Biden are, by all accounts, friendly and cordial in their relationship.

Second, the pick doesn’t obviously reinforce the Obama brand. Biden is not change. Biden is not hope. Biden is many good things but neither of those two. We may see some re-branding of Team Obama today at the unveiling, but I think it’s a little late in the game to be doing that.

Third, I don’t think Biden gives the greatest chance of success in November. I probably wouldn’t even have put him in the top 3 on that score. My biggest concern is that Hillary’s die-hards (and remember, Hillary was my first choice) will make a big fuss. I think the Obama campaign underestimates the number of votes that Obama will now not get because of this choice.

A few days ago, I was worried that Obama sounded too much like Michael Dukakis. Now I just hope that Joe Biden doesn’t turn out to be Lloyd Bentsen.

Cross-posted from Facebook.

Second slot

The New York Times

Obama Chooses Biden as Running Mate

Selection Ends Two-Month Search

Word of Senator Barack Obama’s decision leaked out hours after he had informed Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana and Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia that they had not been chosen.

Washington Post:

Biden has served more than 35 years in the Senate, where he has emerged as one of the leading voices in the Democratic Party on foreign policy matters. He is also a two-time presidential candidate. (Photo: AP)

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/js/multimedia/homepagephotorandomizer.js<div class=”story” id=”topStoryContinuedB”> <div class=”callout”> <a href=”http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/us/politics/24biden.html?hp”><IMG src=”http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/08/22/us/23biden05_337.jpg&#8221; width=”337″ height=”240″ alt=””/></a> <div class=”credit”>Alex Wong/Getty Images</div> <h5> <a href=”http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/us/politics/24biden.html?hp”></a&gt; </h5> <p class=”summary”>Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware is a leading foreign policy authority and a longtime Washington hand.</p> <ul class=”refer”> <li class=”free”><a href=”http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_story=a425c9aca92f51bd19f2a621fd93b5e266507191″><IMG src=”http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/multimedia/icons/video_icon.gif&#8221; alt=”Video” width=”12″ height=”9″ border=”0″> Video</a> | <a href=”http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/issues/vice-presidents/index.html”>Biden on the Issues</a> | <a href=”http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/joseph_r_jr_biden/index.html”>Times Topics: Biden</a></li> <li class=”free”><a href=”http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/08/23/us/politics/20080823_BIDEN_TIMELINE.html”><IMG src=”http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/multimedia/icons/interactive_icon.gif&#8221; alt=”Interactive” width=”9″ height=”9″ border=”0″> Timeline</a> | <a href=”http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/23/obama-chooses-biden-as-running-mate/#respond”><IMG src=”http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/section/opinion/comment_icon.gif&#8221; alt=”Comment” width=”9″ height=”11″ border=”0″> Post a Comment</a></li> <li class=”free”><a href=”http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/23/mccain-rolls-out-new-ad-with-bidens-words/&#8221; rel=”bookmark” title=”Permanent Link to McCain Rolls Out New Ad With Biden’s Words”>The Caucus: McCain Ad Uses Biden’s Words</a> <span class=”timestamp”>6:43 AM ET</span></li> </ul> <div class=”promo”> <!–underphoto–>

That “Ace” pilot, McCain

In a lot of ways, this presidential campaign is about biography, who John McCain is and who Barack Obama is.

A lot of people say, for instance, despite his books, that they don’t know much about Sen. Obama. He’s still too new to the national scene.

Here’s my question: John McCain has occupied the national scene for decades. Does it matter that much of what we know about him is either incomplete, or outright fabrication?

For instance, his record in the United States Navy.

I came across an article, Will `Ace’ McCain Flame Out Again? by Kelly Patricia O’Meara, that lays out in more details what I’m about to tell you.

We’ve heard ad nauseum about how McCain came from a family of warriors, how his fathers and other forebears were admirals. How about McCain himself?

McCain has been a Congressman and United States Senator. We know him as a “war hero” (McCain spent all of 20 hours in combat, getting 28 medals) who was a prisoner of war for five and half years. Just this week, when John McCain could not remember just how many houses he owned, one of his campaign handlers mentioned that he was a prisoner of war for five and half years.

Before any of this, however, McCain was indeed a pilot in the navy and he did fly in Vietnam. But he probably should have never flown in anyone’s navy.

John McCain graduated 894th out of 899 cadets at the U.S. Naval Academy.

McCain got elite assignments in the Navy despite racking up an unusual number of crashes. Until his fateful crash that led to his capture and POW status in Vietnam, McCain had been involved in four other crashes.

McCain’s engine allegedly “quit” and his plane plunged into Corpus Christi Bay in 1958. He would regain consciousness at the bottom of the water. But, when the engine was tested afterward, there was no indication of engine failure. Later, while deployed in the Mediterranean, McCain flew too low over the Iberian Peninsula and took out power lines. Then, returning from flying solo to Philadelphia for an Army-Navy football game, McCain allegedly got a “flameout” and had to eject, landing on a deserted beach as the plane slammed into trees.

Then, in 1967, the ever snakebit McCain was seated in the cockpit when a rocket slammed into the exterior fuel tank of his assigned A-4 Skyhawk. McCain escaped from the burning aircraft but dozens of his shipmates were killed and injured in the explosions that followed.

Just three months after this incident, the Vietcong shot McCain’s A-4 Skyhawk down over Truc Bach Lake near Hanoi, North Vietnam.

“John McCain,” says one Navy pilot in the linked O’Meara article who was an acquaintance of McCain in that era, “was the kind of guy you wanted to room with — not fly with. He was reckless, and that’s critical when you start thinking about who’s going to be the president,” The old pilot laughs, and then continues: “But the Navy accident rate was cut in half the day John McCain was shot down.”

The rest of the story–McCain’s torture during five-and-a-half years as a prisoner of war–we pretty much know. He came home a war hero, cheated on the wife who raised his family while he was away, then dumped her for a much younger woman who then financed his political career.

I just would have loved to see what Karl Rove would have done with McCain, especially his conduct as a POW, if he had had the opportunity. There are Vietnam veterans (in the video above) now who see McCain as less than a hero for his conduct as a POW. They are calling for the record from that time to be declassified.

Springfield, Illinois?

The Obama campaign yesterday confirmed Lynn Sweet’s report that the Illinois senator has reserved the grounds of the old state capital for a major event on Saturday and will appear with his choice for vice president.

Obama’s from Illinois, of course, but he’s already made a big announcement there. Springield strikes me as an odd place to hold a rally with Biden or Kaine unless the announcement comes very soon and the pair hold a rally in Delaware or Virginia somewhere before Saturday. Springfield might not be an unusual place to hold a rally with Sebelius or Bayh, because both of them live within pretty easy driving distance of Springfield.

Maybe he’s not planning to hold a rally in the prospective veep’s home state at all. I don’t see the sense in that unless the pick is someone, like Chet Edwards or Chuck Hagel, from a reliably red state.

Could Obama be considering a vice-presidential candidate who hails from the Land of Lincoln???

As far as I can tell, there’s only one person under serious consideration who fits that bill: Hillary Clinton.

Cross-posted from Facebook.

Touching pain

Bob Dylan – Not Dark Yet

Not Dark Yet by Bob Dylan

Shadows are fallin’
and I’ve been here all day
It’s too hot to sleep
and time is runnin’ away

Feel like my soul has
turned into steel
I’ve still got the scars
that the sun didn’t heal

There’s not even room
enough to be anywhere
It’s not dark yet
but it’s gettin’ there.

Well, my sense of humanity
has gone down the drain
Behind every beautiful thing
there’s been some kind of pain

She wrote me a letter
and she wrote it so kind
She put down in writin’
what was in her mind

I just don’t see why
I should even care
It’s not dark yet
but it’s gettin’ there.

Well, I’ve been to London
and I been to gay Paris
I’ve followed the river
and I got to the sea

I’ve been down on the bottom
of the world full of lies
I ain’t lookin’ for nothin’
in anyone’s eyes

Sometimes my burden
is more than I can bear
It’s not dark yet
but it’s gettin’ there.

I was born here and I’ll die here
against my will
I know it looks like I’m movin’
but I’m standin’ still

Every nerve in my body
is so naked and numb
I can’t even remember what it was
I came here to get away from

Don’t even hear
the murmur of a prayer
It’s not dark yet
but it’s gettin’ there.

An exchange with Bryan Sells on Obama’s VP choice

michael o. allen to Bryan Sells: Today @ 9:18am

Good morning.

I think you’re wrong but would you post your veepstakes piece?

And may I put a link to the New York Times piece in that post?

Bryan Sells‘s reply Today @ 9:24am

OK. You can certainly add the NYT link.

Bryan Sells‘s follow-up to his reply Today @ 9:26am

And what part is wrong? who’s your guess?

michael o. allen to Bryan Today @ 11:17am

I agree with you that all the names that have been floated could be feints. I don’t think Gore is in the mix. Neither is Hillary. I have a hard time seeing Hagel (such a pick would confirm what many suspect that Obama is a moderate in a sheep clothing; the Democratic base would rebel).

Webb is still a possibility (he’s my choice), despite taking himself out of the race.

Kaine, too.

Bayh is certainly safe.

But, if you’re correct that the names being floated are to throw us of, then I would not rule out a safe dark horse like Chet Edwards

Bryan Sells replied Today @ 11:27am

I thought long and hard before leaving Edwards off my list of four surprise picks. His brand isn’t strong enough to make people say “wow!” They’d just say “who?”

michael o. allen’s very long rejoinder Today @ 11:35am

which could be a selling point.

The Times story is wrongly assumes that the presidential candidates want publicity from their vp choices. why would they want publicity?

The most obvious tack is to do no harm. Biden, for instance, even without his awkward jab about Obama being “clean”, would be a harmful pick.

Bayh and Kaine not so much.

Edwards, Chet not John, unless he too has busloads of illegitimate children that he fathered with illegal immigrant prostitutes, would fit the bill of boring but safe vp pick (he even looks like a vp).

And he might even help you.

Today @ 11:47am, Bryan Sells wanted to know:

Fair point. But if Obama’s not seeking publicity, then why’d his campaign leak the “short list” story last night? Why has his campaign been hyping the veepstakes for weeks?

michael o. allen then meanders Today @ 12:04pm

because, as you pointed out in your first post today (which scared me, by the way), Obama is not always the sure-footed candidate that some of us who drank the kool-aid a long time ago (I count myself as one of these) would like to think he is.

I think full-throated economic populism, with jobs and rebuilding America’s infrastructure as the linchpin, is the message that’ll give him the office he seeks. And that’s exactly the message that Obama will not deliver. Obama seems to want to hew close to the middle of the road, thinking the Republican brand is so degraded that even a black man saying not much of anything could coast into the presidency.

I don’t believe that.

I think Americans are taking a hard look at McCain and would give him the presidency in a bat of an eye if he does not seem too crazy. If all that is wrong with McCain is that he’s too old, too incompetent, and sometimes gets lost in his own words, America would take a pass on Obama’s apparent brilliance and stick with McCain.

Obama needs to give people a reason to vote for him. Charisma is not going to do it. Being miles and miles more intelligent than the other guy is not going to do it. You’ve got bring more to the table.