This was by far the worst debate performance for each candidate.
Senator Obama was flat and professorial for most of the night. He was clearly in run-out-the-clock mode, wanting to stay cool and avoid any game-changing mistakes. That’s fine as a strategy, but he faltered on execution. Defense does not mean giving long-winded, professorial answers. Even though playing it safe, Obama should have been more focused in his answers, emphasizing values rather than the intellectual underpinnings of his ten-point policy programs. Obama sounded underprepared to me.
On the plus side, Obama worked the camera extremely well. He spoke directly to the people and, at his best, came across as sincere. When Senator McCain spoke, Obama kept his expressions respectful and calm. It was a huge improvement over some of the final primary debates, when Obama looked annoyed when Senator Clinton spoke. Obama also scored a few points with well timed colloquialisms. I particularly liked “use ’em or lose ’em.”
Senator McCain, on the other hand, was a train wreck. Visually, the format could not have been worse for him. It was painful to watch a man so uncomfortable and so openly contemptuous of his opponent. The blinking and rolling of his eyes, the darting of his tongue, and his clear agitation in the seat are not going to serve him well at all. The more people see of McCain up close, the less presidential he looks.
But the more serious problem for McCain was the one that Nate Silver captures here. McCain lost all credibility when he first accused Obama of running the more negative campaign — something that polls say the voters clearly don’t believe — then launched an attack about William Ayers, and then claim that his campaign is all about the economy. It was ridiculous. Undecided voters in TIME’s focus group were laughing at him. Also ridiculous was McCain’s assertion that “of course” he will balance the budget in 4 years. Doesanybody believe that? It was moment of clear desperation.
On the plus side for McCain was his economic argument in the first 20 minutes of the debate. Even after all these years, the Reagan message on taxes and trickle-down economics still resonates. McCain also got off the best soundbite of the night (“I’m not George Bush…”), but even that struck me as not particularly credible coming so late in the game. Obama has already defined McCain with the voters as having supported Bush 90% of the time.
Even though I give a thumbs down to both candidates, Obama was the clear winner because he was much less awful than McCain on visuals alone, and he succeeded in avoiding any game-changing mistakes.
With only 19 days remaining, the dynamics of this race have ossified. I’d expect the RNC to give McCain one last chance to shake things up. If the race doesn’t show signs of changing dramatically in a week or so, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the RNC pull its efforts on the presidential race and focus on saving the Senate seats in Kentucky and Georgia.
Cross-posted from Facebook.